2.1% yearly GDP growth rate foreseen for the next 50 years

Malta and Ireland are poised to be the frontrunners in Europe's economic expansion between now and 2070.

Every two years the European Commission publishes the Ageing Report – a comprehensive document detailing projections of economic developments till 2070 and their impact on government spending.

European Commission experts are predicting that, on average, Malta’s GDP will grow by 2.1% per year between 2022 and 2070. This is the highest economic growth rate forecast for a European country during this period. Both Malta and Ireland are expected to have this rate of improvement in their real value added.

By contrast, the EU economic growth is forecast to be only 1.3%. This means that Malta’s economy will be improving every year by more than one-and-a-half times the European average. The countries with the lowest economic growth are expected to be Germany, Greece, France, Italy, Latvia, and Finland, all of which are projected to grow by 1.1%, or almost half the growth rate Malta is expected to have.

The European Commission’s report also notes that our country has been the one with the best growth in the labour participation rate since 2010. On the one hand, the participation rate among men reached that in Sweden, the country with the highest rate in Europe, while that of women has reached the European average for the first time in history.

This participation rate is expected to be further strengthened and, in fact, Malta’s unemployment rate is forecast to be much lower than the European Union’s in all years between now and 2070.

Furthermore, according to the European Commission, every year on average between now and 2070, the productivity of Malta’s workers will improve by 1.6%. This is a rate that is better than the European average of 1.4%. To put things more in perspective, Germany – a country surely not associated with cheap labour – is expected to have an average annual productivity increase of 1.3%, or much less than Malta. So too France, where the increase in productivity is expected to be only 1%.

This report confirms that, while Malta has experienced a period of strong economic growth in the past years, European experts think this positive growth differential will persist in the coming years. This will happen on the back of continued improvement in labour participation but, more importantly, because of a very positive trend in productivity developments.

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