Bernard Grech’s reaction to our earlier article on the PN’s costings has confirmed he is economically illiterate.
Our article pointed out that the PN’s economic forecasts are based on an incorrect starting GDP figure. This because the PN’s document states that GDP growth in 2021 was 5.9%, when official data show that GDP growth in 2021 was 9.4%.
Of course, for a forecast to be reliable you have, at the very least, to build it on the basis of correct past data. To give a simple example, if you want to forecast how much money you will have tomorrow, you need to at least know precisely how much money you have today. The PN, on the other hand, when telling us how much our economy will grow in the future, showed clearly that they did not even know how much it grew last year.
For a forecast to be reliable you have, at the very least, to build it on the basis of correct past data.
Faced with this clear exposition of the PN’s basic mistake, Bernard Grech posted on social media that this criticism was not correct. “Look at Labour’s manifesto”, he said, “their Proposal No 1 states that as a result of the implementation of the PL’s manifesto, Malta’s GDP growth over the next five years will be 5.5%”.
Now let us start with the basic fact that 5.9% and 5.5% are not the same. But more importantly, the Labour proposal clearly states that it is talking about Malta’s growth over the next five years as a result of its manifesto. It is not the baseline of its forecast, as Bernard Grech is trying to say.
This incident shows that Bernard Grech is not capable to understand even the difference between a forecast and past data. Imagine how able he will ever be to assess the viability of his economic plans.
Well, it is difficult to expect any better from someone who states that 25% of 100,000 is 250,000.