First EU-wide election estimates scheduled for 6.15pm

The tentative timeframe for the publication of EU-wide estimates and election data on Sunday night.

The support garnered by political parties in the European election in Malta is expected to be known as early as Sunday morning. However, it will only be in the evening that the Electoral Commission of Malta will publish the official results, with the European Parliament scheduled to start announcing partial estimates at 6.15pm.

This data blackout measure is being taken across the bloc to ensure a fair voting process where the results in earlier voting countries do not influence the choices of voters in later voting countries. It is only by 11pm Malta time on Sunday that polling stations in all member states will have closed.

Following the conclusion of the elections, national authorities will transmit data on elected candidates to the European Parliament. This data is crucial for the Parliament to get the full picture of how the new assembly will be formed. The makeup of the new Parliament will be determined not only by the elected MEPs but also by how they choose to form political groups based on their shared ideologies and priorities – MEPs are not grouped according to nationality. For example, Maltese Labour Party MEPs will join the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) Group, while those from the Nationalist Party will join the European People’s Party (EPP) Group.

The European Parliament is currently composed of seven political groups:

European People’s Party (EPP)

Socialists and Democrats (S&D)

Renew Europe

Greens/European Free Alliance

European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)

Identity and Democracy (ID)

The Left

Those elected MEPs who do not belong to any political group are known as non-attached Members.

The composition of the outgoing European Parliament. The new assembly will have 720 members.

Tentative timeframe

The following is the tentative timeframe for the publication of EU-wide estimates and election data on Sunday night:

6:15pm – 6 national estimates*: Austria, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Malta, Netherlands

7:15pm – 2 additional national estimates*: Bulgaria, Croatia

8:15pm – 8.45pm – 3 additional national estimates*: Denmark, France, Spain

8:15pm – 8.45pm – First European Parliament aggregation* (hemicycle projection) based on: 11 national estimates*, 16 pre-electoral data*. This will be presented via a live broadcast by the institution’s Spokesperson and Director-General for Communication, Jaume Duch Guillot.

9:15pm – 9.30pm – 4 additional national estimates*: Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden

11:15pm – 11.30pm – 24 first provisional results (including 10 new Member States): Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden + 1 national estimate* (Poland, same as at 9:15pm) + 1 additional national estimate* (Italy)

11:15pm – 11.30pm – Updated European Parliament aggregation* (hemicycle projection) based on: 24 provisional results, 2 national estimates*, 1 pre-electoral data*

00:15am – 1 additional provisional result: Belgium

00:15am – Updated European Parliament aggregation* (hemicycle projection) based on: 25 provisional results, 2 national estimates*

1am (tentative) – Updated European Parliament result projection* based on additional incoming results data

Hemicycle turned into giant studio

The European Parliament in Brussels has been completely transformed to accommodate over 1,000 media representatives coming from over 90 countries, including The Journal. The parliament’s hemicycle has been converted into one giant press room, with 700 working spaces foreseen for journalists. Furthermore, 125 stand-up positions have been prepared, among which 66 in the hemicycle on three levels covering 420 square metres and 185 broadband lines for transmission are foreseen.

The European Parliament hemicycle in Brussels – set up as a giant press room. Photo: EPA-EFE

*Glossary

National estimate: Provided by Verian for the European Parliament based on available exit polls, estimations or similar non-official data published in a Member State.

Pre-electoral data: Last voting intention survey published in a Member State ahead of the elections or latest national elections results.

European Parliament aggregation: Aggregation of currently available national estimates and preelectoral voting intentions in the form of one hemicycle graph.

European Parliament result projection: Projection of the results of the European elections 2024, based where available on official results (partial/full, provisional/final).

Main photo: Sandro Mangion

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