1. The predicted figures for this year’s General Election result were very close to the final result. What is your comment on this?

A survey is always an estimated statistical reading of public opinion at a particular moment.

I consider this to be a clear confirmation that, as always, the surveys carried out during this electoral campaign were serious and based on a solid scientific methodology.

The prediction for the Labour Party was 53.3%, while the actual result was 51.8%, meaning a difference of 1.5 percentage points. For the Nationalist Party, the prediction was 42.8% and the actual result was 44.6%, a difference of 1.8 percentage points. For the other parties, the prediction was 3.9% and the final result was 3.6%, meaning a difference of only 0.3 percentage points.

When one compares the predictions with the actual result, the differences were very minimal. Every predicted figure fellcomfortably within the established margin of error, which was between +/-2.5% and +/-2.8% throughout the campaign. Such small differences are a testament to the methodology, aligningwith the consistent accuracy of every other general election survey I have led. 

2. How important is the margin of error in every survey carried out in the field of research?

The margin of error is crucial for a survey to be read correctly. Very often, people fixate on a figure, such as 53.3% or 42.8%, and consider it as a final result. However, statistically, this is not the correct way to read a survey. Every percentage should be read as an estimate that inherently carries a degree of variance.

The margin of error reminds us that a sample, even whenrepresentative, is still not the entire population. Therefore, the prediction should be understood as a reasonable range and not as an absolute number. In this case, the differences between the prediction and the actual result were 1.5 percentage points for the PL, 1.8 points for the PN, and 0.3 points for the other parties. These are very small differences and should be interpreted within the context of the margin of error.

Furthermore, in studies such as these, survey trends are very important. Every survey showed that the Labour Party was going to win the general election, and that is what happened.This consistency is also mirrored in every survey I have worked on during recent years, it was always indicated that the Labour Party would win the general election, which is exactly how reality unfolded. 

3. During the electoral campaign, you published a number of videos explaining and educating people about surveys and the science behind them. Why do you feel that more education is needed on this?

Very often, public debate focuses on who “got it right” or who “got it wrong”, and that completely misses the scientific purpose behind surveys. That is precisely why I believe there is a need for more public education on how to interpret surveys. 

A survey should always be read together with a number of factors: the sample size, the method of data collection, the period during which the survey was carried out, the statistical weighting used, and the margin of error. When the public understands these concepts, they can easily distinguish between serious, scientific surveys and superficial polling. It also is important to understand that a good survey does not claim certainty in the exact numerical gap. It presents an honest, transparent, and evidence-based estimate. 

I produced these educational videos over the course of several months, consistently explaining very important statistical concepts. My aim was to provide more knowledge and information to the public. I’ve since received highly encouraging feedback that this truly helped people begin to understand how they should interpret a survey and its related results.

4. What would you say to those who continue to look at surveys with a certain level of scepticism?

A survey is a scientific estimate of what public opinion is showing at a particular moment. Surveys remain among the strongest tools for understanding the pulse of the people, making necessary predictions, supporting industry strategy, and taking better evidence-based decisions.

In this case, the final result showed that the predictions were very close to the facts. The differences between the prediction and the actual result were very small and within the context of the margin of error. Surveys produced using a good scientific methodology, a representative sample and in-depth analysisserve as a powerful tool to better understand our society, far beyond politics. Other sectors including social, commercial and economic spheres, among others, rely heavily on information and data to successfully progress and shape a better future.