Whither the euro if the dollar collapses?

Don’t expect any fancy words from the dictionary of economics or some mathematical arguments to embellish this week’s Letter from Lilliput. It is just a layman’s look at the dour situation facing the American dollar at a time of two horrific wars and an irrational political world fast swinging to far-right realities, as we have just been assisting to in the eastern regions of Germany.
It is hoped some logic creeps in by way of questions that the man in the street would most likely be asking. American hegemony and interference across the globe have spiralled in recent years as Russian and Chinese influence flourished worldwide. Not through wars (the unfortunate Ukraine invasion has its own unique story) or the setting up of military bases in foreign lands, but through commerce, good common trading sense, barter dealing, and an attitude more of friendship than condescension.
The setting up of BRICS, a group of leading emerging economies (that first included five nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – and has this year grown by five others – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) was the clarion call. As the huge Non-Aligned Movement, founded in 1961 but matured into a global political force in the 70s when the Cold War was still raging wildly, had done to the American psyche, so is BRICS doing to it in this 21st century of “modern” human civilisation. The more a new world order seems likely on the horizon, the more panic is being shown by the United States and its European satellites. Their current war mongering, regardless of the genocide, civil war, and famine taking place – most of which the direct result of past colonialism and the continued theft of natural resources – is an immoral signal to the world.

Increasing subtle and crude warnings do not go unnoticed. Among the crudest was former US President Donald Trump recently warning of serious economic consequence if BRICS and other countries sideline the US dollar. He pledged not to make trade deals easy for developing nations if they move away from the US currency and face a 100% tariff on goods that enter the US.
And why? Because the BRICS alliance is looking to make local currencies the sole option for cross-border transactions. Trump or no Trump past 5th November, America will insist you have to use the dollar or face corollaries. This could all change the global trade dynamics, leading to a paradigm shift in the import and export sectors. The de-dollarisation process was first kick-started by BRICS after the US pressed sanctions on Russia in February 2022, with BRICS fast-tracking the agenda since then and convincing other developing countries to follow suit.
Not a happy scenario, but an inevitable one. Empires never survive, however big, strong and enduring. History is replete with them. The collapse of the dollar and incalculable American debts could also mean, by proxy, the end of a decadent Europe with its own struggling currency, the euro. What can eurozone states do to avoid oblivion? They cannot go on dancing to American tunes, but they also cannot muster their old economic greatness and affluence (forget the smaller nations) without the resources they still embezzle from the old colonies of Africa, for example. It is probably why the EU and the US seem bent on appropriating what riches lie underground in post-war Ukraine. What happens to the euro, European investors, and the common European citizen, again going through another bout of austerity, while the billions of taxpayer money go to Ukraine?
The omens are certainly not good. For example, did anyone notice that gold hit a new all-time high recently? But it’s fascinating to notice how mainstream business media and “free” international news outlets ignored the story. That would interfere with the everyday sales of weapons and armaments to sustain current wars. Should we brace ourselves for imminent turbulence in the global economy?
A true picture
If ever a true picture of a nation’s significant commitment to diversity, social inclusivity and freedom of expression was needed, then last Monday’s l-Orizzont twin middle pages win the prize. It was an interesting sight for keener eyes.
On the left, at page 10, pictures and all, was the story about last Saturday’s Pride March in Valletta; actually the 20th such march in our country. However inspiring this anniversary may be, what have been remarkable are the many reforms that have been carried out since 2013, when the LGBTIQ+ community finally found it had a government and a society willing to establish equality as a prescribed standard. A look at the 2022 electoral manifesto will also tell you there are still many other reforms in the pipeline. Marching is fine but implementing electoral pledges and moving on with the business of eliminating prejudice and utter hatred once and for all are even better.

Facing it at page 11, again pictures and all, was a report of the lovely annual spectacle of the bicycle and motorcycle pilgrimage held on the occasion of the Our Lady of Graces festa in Żabbar. It is always heart-warming to watch so many riders taking part in this traditional event, and both solemn and spirited at the same time.
What primarily united those two pages, however, was one thing: love.

Main illustration: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic